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We love our computers, don’t we? I mean when they work, we love them. We love new computers too; faster, more powerful… don’t we? But pretty much every PC today Windows, or Mac, Intel based, or AMD based are running of x86 CPU architecture. This architecture was born in around 1977 and has been built upon ever since. I wanted an all new CPU about five years ago. I now think we are very close to seeing this happen. Here are some of my reasons for thinking so:
The progress to more powerful CPUs has slowed greatly and has produced only modest gains over the last ten years. [Source: Multiple benchmark sites, reviewers, etc]
Last year (2017) AMD introduced some processors which rivaled Intel’s Desktop CPUs. Intel failed to respond with a clearly superior chip as they have in the past. This shows me that Intel has lost its edge. This year AMD is set to release another chip aimed at Intel’s high-end server CPUs, but at 25% of the cost of Intel’s chip (so say rumors). [Source: multiple]
Other manufactures plan to re-enter the x86 chip market soon too (namely VIA). This all means less profit for the x86 market. [Source: Linus Tech Tips; others]
Apple announced it will move away from Intel CPUs starting in 2020. Instead Apple will begin using its own CPUs. Whatever this new chip is, I’ll bet it’s nothing like an x86 chip’s architecture. [Source: Apple]
Next, I have recently read that AMD has signed a deal with China to allow China to develop CPUs base on AMD Ryzen CPUs. Until this deal China has not been allowed to develop x86 tech. Former US President (Obama) even stopped the sale of Intel’s Xeon processors to China. [Source: Tom’s Hardware]
Microsoft has been messing around with getting Windows to run on ARM CPUs and who knows what else. [Source: Microsoft]
Everything above makes me think that something must be in the works. My guess is before 2025 the x86 chip will be part of history.
Does anyone have any thoughts? Any other information?
BTW, I didn’t link to sources because I’ve had trouble posting here with multiple links. The info is easy to find via Google. 😊
I don't claim to be an expert on this, far from it, but the way I understand it Intel and AMD's CPU's all run on the x86 architecture. So that's virtually all PC's currently running x86 based CPU's so I can't see the architecture disappearing within the next 7 years unless something new and revolutionary appears within the next year or so. Apple moving away from Intel, although credible could also be a power play on their part, with Intel seeming a little weak right now with AMD making a grab on their market hold. But as I said it has credibility, Apple have a history of using proprietary hardware (and software) so them wanting to make their units even harder to repair or upgrade is believable. Then again, it's 5% of Intel's market share and anyone who's serious about computing doesn't buy Apple, it's style over function.
As I said, I can't see any new architecture on the horizon for the PC market and it takes a long time for chip manufacturers to get turned around for a new run, with new tooling and facilities, training and obtaining materials. If there was a something big on the horizon, there would be some king of rumour but as it is, AMD is on the Ryze(n) and Intel has been caught scrambling around trying to put together something to reassure the market of their dominance.
I think you're confusing Intel's decline and them being the x86 progenitors as the decline of x86 but that was only really true of the 32bit architecture usage which has waned in favour of x86-64bit (championed originally by AMD I believe). 64bit x86 is the norm for desktop and laptop processors now and although phones and tablets are getting more powerful I can't see them overtaking the computing power of a full sized desktop chip. Unless something bloody amazing just pops up of course.
More an enthusiast, too, but I'm actually in favour of a more diverse technological range of products. I mean to say for different kinds of hardware, no 'one size fits all' architectures. If I buy e.g. a workhorse computer I don't buy a 'shoe box' sized one. I got space and opt for a good cooling solution and what I know will do. This means PC and x86 multi-core for obvious reasons. Intel's architecture isn't quite universal to me, but the markets they took over are still big enough so no necessity to change that for a while. Last time Intel and Microsoft tried enter another playing field and came out with 'Wintel' tablets and phones these had been decent products, only I was far from excited. I thought 'oh please... I get me something else' and I did. I probably wasn't the only one, people didn't want to buy them en masse. Todays smartphones and tablets may have their roots in PDAs and those were traditionally powered by RISC architectures as far as I know (Palm, Casio...). These are good enough for the purpose. And we only got iOS and Android as the usual choice, so Windows Phone isn't something I got hyped by.
I would like to mention VIA for a moment, their 'Nano' x86 CPU was a capable little processor, on par with Intel's Atom and AMD's offers (think they did call theirs 'Athlon' but it was based on another core). Sadly the Nano didn't make it into more products. Some affordable mainboards would have made a nice NAS base, or a small surf station. But people bought what everyone else had in mind I guess. Wished I'd had seen VIA do better.
Don't want to sound boring but also still fondly remember the POWER architecture when for a time it had found it's way to the private consumer and there were different manufacturers using it, not only Apple. Today what you can purchase is big iron (mainframes) with such chips. That's a shame, it is still a decent architecture me thinks.
ARM or MIPS as an option is something I cherish. It's probably that there is no need for more performance for most people and what they like to do, so nobody has to re-invent the wheel for 'classic' computers? I don't need a top notch multi-core CPU for everyday tasks like surfing the net and office work. No reason to go x86 if I can have a more feasible alternative. If it suffices, who hisses?? So x86 will spar ARM or MIPS at the lower end of the performance range, no probs with it at all.
Different devices for different tasks had been the way to go for the past 20 years or so? IoT and and Smart Home applications don't long for much performance either. Even autonomous vehicles will probably use smallish cores and meshed system architectures.I guess x86-64 is here to stay for longer, AVX may become a thing in future for CPUs, but else?? Just can't imagine anything I'd do I have to pull super computer performance for in the near future. I don't see a revolution in computing coming any time soon, at least not for the normals out there like me.
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